Market sizing and forecasting

Innovation Observatory has huge expertise in sizing and forecasting complex technology markets, and estimating market shares, both for client-specific projects and for published reports.

  • Equipment markets by volume and value
  • Service markets by volume and value
  • Segmented into product / service sub-categories
  • International markets segmented by region or country
  • Customisable model input and assumption sheets

Example process for forecasting simple markets and estimating market shares [Source: Innovation Observatory]
Example process for forecasting simple markets and estimating market shares [Source: Innovation Observatory]

Why we are different

Before structuring and populating a model we think broadly about the factors to be considered, the likely availability of data sets and the best methods to gather data and inform assumptions, and the best tools to use.

For instance, we can use primary research to test assumptions and confirm data points. We can use Monte Carlo simulation to give greater robustness to models that are particularly sensitive to specific input variables. We can deliver models with a customisable front end to enable customers and clients to vary inputs, if they find new data, or have different opinions on our assumptions.

For a network operator we forecast the growth of the market for wholesale IP Exchange services worldwide under multiple scenarios, with the forecasts split by region and service type

For a research company we estimated the value of the international transit, roaming and signalling market worldwide and of the emerging market for data and financial clearing-house services.

For a telecoms equipment vendor, we forecast the global market for the number of mobile network backhaul links by technology type, segmenting the market into different regions.

For a telecoms equipment vendor, we forecast the global market for the number of mobile network backhaul links by technology type, segmenting the market into different regions.

For a UK mobile operator, we forecast the number of subscribers to MVNO services over a five-year period, for both voice and mobile broadband services. We also forecast the level of spend on these services, in absolute terms and as a fraction of the total market.

Our report Smart Grid Technology Investment: Forecasts for 2010-2030 breaks down global utility capex and opex spend by region, and by type of service and equipment.

We have forecast the value of the cloud services market in Western Europe, and the proportion of this market that could be won by telecom operators.